XRP Monthly Analysis — $1.00 Double Bottom Reversal: August's Engulfing Opens the Road to $2.41

XRP's monthly chart has spent 13 months bleeding from its July 2025 all-time high of 3.6607 — until August 2026 delivered one of the most violent reversal candles in the token's history: a spike from 0.9862 to 1.6999 that closed at 1.3798, up roughly 30% on the month and 40% off the low. The downtrend is broken. The question now is whether the recovery has legs or whether the 1.70 shelf turns into another graveyard.

Thirteen Months Down, One Engulfing Up

The bear phase was orderly in the way bear phases always are: lower highs from 3.6607 (July 2025) to 3.0998 (October 2025) to 2.4172 (January 2026), then an acceleration into capitulation. The June low of 1.0092 and the August low of 0.9862 form a tight double bottom at the $1.00 round number — two taps of the same floor in three months.

August's candle is the tell. It swept below the June low, triggered the stop hunt, and reversed 72% off the wick to tag 1.6999 before settling at 1.3798. That is a textbook capitulation reversal on the monthly scale — and it broke the descending trendline that had contained price for over a year.

The Levels That Decide

Resistance stacks quickly above price: the August spike high at 1.6999, then 1.7711 — a level that bottomed the market twice (February 2025 and December 2025) and now flips to supply. Above that, 1.8423 (December close) and the 2.09-2.15 zone (March and November 2025 closes). The measured move from the May high structure — 1.5496 + (1.5496 − 0.9862) = 2.113 — converges with the January 2026 high at 2.4172 as the ultimate target band.

Support is the 1.30-1.33 shelf (April/May closes and the August close), then 1.1172 (February low) and the double-bottom floor at 0.9862-1.0092. The Fibonacci grid from 3.6607 to 0.9862 places 0.618 at 2.008 — right inside the measured-move zone — and 0.5 at 2.323, hugging the January high.

Scenarios

Bull path: XRP holds above 1.38, pushes through the 1.6999 spike with monthly closes, then faces the real test at 1.7711. A close above 1.77 opens 1.84, the 2.09-2.15 supply and finally the 2.11-2.42 measured zone. Expect the 1.70-1.77 area to take multiple attempts — it is the most defended supply on the chart. Invalidation: a monthly close below 1.1172.

Bear path: the 1.70-1.77 shelf rejects, price fades back through 1.30-1.33 toward 1.1172, and the market sweeps the 1.00 floor one more time. The double bottom only remains a double bottom while 0.9862 holds; a monthly close below it resumes the 13-month bear toward 0.88-0.92. The path of least resistance is up after the engulfing, but 1.77 is the toll booth.

August swept the floor, broke the trend and put XRP back in the fight. The 1.70-1.77 shelf decides whether this is a bottom or just another bear-market bounce.

Data: Binance XRPUSDT monthly · CoinGecko XRP