XRP Daily Analysis — Descending Triangle Under the $1.70 Spike

XRP ripped from $0.99 to $1.70 in four sessions on the ETF wave, then spent the week giving it back. What looks like a pullback on the surface is actually a textbook descending triangle forming under the August 22 spike high — lower highs since the top, flat demand at $1.357-1.39, and the apex of that triangle arriving right now.

The pattern on the daily

The August 22 high printed at $1.6999 (candle 112). Every rally since has made a lower high: $1.5505, then $1.5304, then $1.4740, then $1.4726. Draw that line and it slopes down hard, while buyers keep defending the $1.357-1.393 shelf — three separate daily lows tagged that zone on August 26, 27 and 29. That is a descending triangle with three touches on each side: the lower-highs trendline has 4 touches, the support shelf has 3.

The measured move is the honest part. Triangle height is $1.70 minus $1.357, roughly $0.34. Projected below the shelf that points at $1.02-1.05 — which is exactly where XRP consolidated for most of July before the ETF breakout. The market does not need to go there in one shot; the intermediate target sits at the $1.28-1.30 breakout zone from August 20.

Bull case: the reclaim

The bull scenario starts with a reclaim of $1.41 and a close back above the lower-highs line near $1.44-1.47. That would turn the triangle into a bull flag continuation and open a retest of the $1.55-1.70 zone. The invalidation is a daily close below $1.357 — if the shelf gives, the bearish structure is confirmed and the triangle projects lower.

Bear case: the breakdown

The bear scenario expects one more push at support that fails, a sweep of the $1.357 low to liquidate late longs, then a slide through the $1.28 breakout zone toward the $1.24-1.26 measured-move area. The path of least resistance remains downward while price trades under the descending lower-highs line; a daily close below $1.357 would add a lot of weight to that side.

What invalidates each side

BULL dies below $1.357 on a daily close. BEAR dies above $1.474 — the most recent lower high — because that breaks the descending structure and hands control back to the ETF momentum crowd. In between, expect chop: this is a compressed range resolving, not a straight-line trade.

The next 5-10 sessions decide the direction. Watch the $1.357 shelf like a hawk: three touches means it is heavily defended, but triangles resolve, and when the apex arrives one side loses.

This is technical analysis, not financial advice.