TRX Daily Analysis — Neckline Retest After the MM Double Touch: $0.336 Decides 0.342 or 0.322

The Setup

TRX has spent the whole month of September inside a rectangle most traders drew two weeks ago. The double top that capped late August — left peak $0.3502 on August 22, right peak $0.3467 on August 25 — broke its $0.3360 neckline on September 1, and the market has been testing the pieces of that breakdown ever since.

The pattern handed out a roadmap, and the roadmap was accurate. Height of the double top: 0.3502 minus 0.3360 = 0.0142. Projected below the neckline: 0.3218 — essentially the $0.322 level. Tron tagged that number twice in two days and bounced off it both times. Patterns that deliver their measured move and then hold it deserve respect.

The Measured Move, Delivered

September 1 took TRX from the neckline to a low of $0.3220 in a single session. September 2 pressed it again — $0.3217 — and could not make a lower low. That is a double touch of the projection, and 0.3217 happens to be the exact July 17 low, giving buyers a confluence of the measured move and a historical pivot.

Since then the bounce has been orderly: closes of 0.3252, 0.3309, 0.3314 and 0.3338, reclaiming the 0.5 retrace at 0.3305 along the way. Price now sits at $0.3338 — one close below the neckline it broke. This is the textbook retest: a broken level returns to be tested from below, and what happens here decides whether September is a bear trap or a continuation.

The Two Doors

BULL: a daily close above $0.3360-0.3375 turns the breakdown into a failed move. The reclaim ladder is 0.3423 (the August 28 lower high), 0.3467 (right peak) and the 0.3502 round trip. Above the double top, the extension targets the 0.364-0.377 zone toward the May high — with the neckline-plus-height projection at 0.3644.

BEAR: the first retest of a broken neckline fails more often than it reclaims. Rejection at 0.3360 rolls TRX back to 0.3305 (0.5 retrace), then 0.3258 (0.618 + August 3 low), then the 0.3220-0.3217 floor. A daily close below 0.3217 breaks the double bottom and opens the June low at 0.3108.

Probabilities

This is close to a coin flip with a slight bearish edge — roughly 45% reclaim versus 55% rejection — for one simple reason: broken necklines tend to hold on the first retest, and 0.3360 already rejected the market three times in late August. The bulls' case rests on the double touch at the measured move and the reclaim of the 0.5 retrace, which are real, but the burden of proof is on a close above the neckline, not on a bounce near it.

The tradeable framing is a trigger, not a prediction: long only on a close above $0.3375 with 0.3423 as the first target; short only on a rejection with 0.3305 as the first target. Trading the middle — betting on a reclaim before it happens — is where this setup punishes people.

When a measured-move target tags twice and price reclaims the 0.5 retrace, the breakdown loses its momentum. It only dies on a close above the neckline — everything before that is a bounce.

Bottom Line

TRX is at the decision point its own pattern created: $0.3338, directly under the $0.3360 neckline it broke on September 1. Above 0.3375 the move is a bear trap targeting 0.3423 and then the 0.3502 round trip. Rejection sends it back to 0.3305, 0.3258 and the 0.322 double floor. Invalidation for the bulls: a daily close below 0.3220. Invalidation for the bears: a close above 0.3467.

Live data: TRX/USDT on Binance · Tron on CoinGecko · TRX chart on TradingView