SOL Daily Analysis — Sweep-and-Reclaim Pennant: $105.9 Decides the $110 Retest or the 97.4 Floor

The Setup

Solana spent most of August doing what the rest of the market only talked about: it broke out. From the mid-July base near $74 it ran to a post-February high of $110.60 by August 27, reclaiming $100 on the way on the back of record spot ETF inflows, a transaction-count record and a four-billion-dollar tokenized-RWA pile. The move was explosive but orderly — a staircase of higher closes with volume confirmation at every step.

Then came the level that stopped it. SOL tagged $110.60 on August 27 and $110.00 the very next session, and both times sellers slammed it back down. That double rejection — two touches of the same zone in 48 hours — set up the correction that followed and, with it, the wedge that is now deciding the next leg.

The Rejection, the Sweep and the Reclaim

After the double top at $110 the pullback did exactly what healthy corrections do: it found the first serious retracement and held. The August leg from $74.10 to $110.60 puts its 0.382 at $96.66. On September 2 SOL swept to $97.38, undercut the psychological $100 handle, grabbed the stops resting below it, and closed the same session back above $100 — a classic liquidity sweep that set a higher low.

Since that sweep the structure has been a textbook coil: rising lows at $100.21 (Sep 4) and $101.60 (Sep 5) against falling highs at $105.91 (Sep 3), $104.79 (Sep 4) and $104.37 (Sep 5). Price is trading near $104 this morning, inside a wedge whose apex is basically now. Volume tells the same story — the $545M rejection candle gave way to $161M on Friday. The market is waiting for a trigger.

The Two Doors

BULL: a daily close above the descending-highs line — practically $105.90 — opens the retest of $107.48, then the $110.00–110.60 rejection zone itself. Above the double top, the measured move from the $74.10 base lands in the $115–118 area, the same zone analysts flagged when SOL first cleared $100. The higher-low reclaim says the path of least resistance is up while $97.38 holds.

BEAR: losing $101.60 breaks the rising-lows structure, and the first target becomes the $100.20 shelf followed by the $97.38 sweep low. A daily close under $97.38 turns the August rally into a lower-high sequence with the 0.5 retracement at $92.35 and the 0.618 at $88.05 in play. The wedge is tight enough that whichever side closes it first usually gets follow-through.

Probabilities

Modestly bullish while the sweep low holds. Three arguments: the September 2 stop run already proved buyers exist under $100; the pullback stalled exactly on the 0.382 rather than the 0.5; and the higher lows are getting higher while the falling highs are flattening — $105.91, $104.79, $104.37 — which is what a coiling market looks like before a continuation. That said, two rejections at $110 in 48 hours are not nothing: this is the second test of that ceiling, not the first, so the bull case only pays after a close above $105.90 confirms it.

Markets that reclaim a swept low on the same session and then coil under the old rejection are usually building for the retest, not for a reversal. The giveaway will be volume on the close above 105.90 — the August breakout printed 500M+ days, and the wedge has been trading on a third of that.

Bottom Line

Solana is inside the cleanest large-cap setup of the week: a sweep-and-reclaim low at $97.38, rising support, falling resistance, and price parked at the apex. The trade is simple — a close above $105.90 opens the road back to $110 and, through it, the $115–118 measured zone; a close below $101.60 sends it back toward the $97.38 floor and the $92–93 retracements beyond. Until one of those happens, the wedge is the whole story.

Live data: SOL/USDT on Binance · Solana on CoinGecko · SOL chart on TradingView