LINK Daily Analysis — Double Top at $12.62: The $11.00 Neckline Decides 9.40 or 13.50

LINK has nearly doubled off its June low — from $6.996 to a spike high of $12.62, with the final leg adding about 54% in the ten sessions to Aug 22. That spike has stalled into a double top that is now sitting directly on its neckline.

The double top at $12.62

The left peak is the Aug 22 spike high at $12.62, the right peak is the Aug 28 retest at $12.06, and the pullback low between them is $11.00 (Aug 23). Price has now hugged that $11.00 line for four sessions — the Aug 30 low at $10.992 and today's low at $11.014 — compressing exactly where the pattern resolves.

The levels that matter

• Neckline / trigger: $11.00. A daily close below it completes the double top.
• Measured move: $12.62 − $11.00 = $1.62 → the $9.38 target. That lands inside the $9.1-9.8 confluence of the 0.5-0.618 Fib retracement of the June-August leg and the Aug 15-17 breakout shelf ($9.30-9.54) — the first real floor below.
• Resistance: $11.98-12.06 (Aug 27-28 highs), then the $12.62 spike. Bull trigger: a daily close above $12.62.

Bull scenario (~40%)

The bull case starts with the $11.00 neckline holding. LINK needs to reclaim $11.60 first, then clear the $11.98-12.06 highs. The Aug 28 fake-out above $12.06 means the first attempt at $12.6 will likely be sold — the clean entry is a close above $12.62, which cancels the double top and opens the flag projection toward $13.50-14.25 (the $8.16→$12.62 pole measured from the consolidation). Not a straight line: expect a sweep under $11.15 to trap the weak longs before any real push.

Bear scenario (~60%)

The bear case is the coiling picture: four days pinned under the $11.60 mid-range with the neckline being tested repeatedly is the setup that usually resolves down. The first move is likely a liquidity sweep under $11.00 — a wick to $10.85 that closes back above would be a trap, the real breakdown is the daily close below. From there the path targets $10.36 (the Aug 20 low), then the $9.94 intermediate projection and finally the $9.38 measured-move zone, where buyers from mid-August step back in.

What invalidates what

BULL is invalid below a daily close under $10.99 — the neckline shelf failing means the pattern completes and the measured move is in play. BEAR is invalid above a daily close over $12.62 — a new high erases the double top and flips the structure to continuation. The probabilities lean bearish at the margin simply because the market has spent four days drifting toward the neckline rather than away from it.