ETH Weekly Analysis — Double-Bottom Breakout: $2,566 Confirms, $2,800-3,000 Is the Measured Move

Ethereum just printed its strongest weekly candle in a year: a 31.3% move from $1,876 to $2,463, with a spike high of $2,546 on August 17. The impulse came after four months of building a double bottom between $1,505 and $1,512, and it has carried ETH from the June basement to the doorstep of the $2,566 wall — the level that decides whether the next objective is $2,800-3,000 or a return to the $2,100-2,150 basin.

The double bottom that started it

The base is unambiguous on the weekly chart: two tests of $1,505-1,512 in June (candles 106 and 109), a neckline at $1,850 (the June 15 high), a breakout in mid-July above $1,967, and a retest that held at $1,828-1,853 in late July. That retest is what separates a real breakout from a fake one — and one week later ETH exploded.

Reading the levels

The $2,400 support is the current battleground: this week's low printed at $2,401, holding the flag intact. Below it, the 23.6% retracement of the full 1,505-to-2,546 impulse sits at $2,300 and the 38.2% at $2,148 — the deeper-buy zone if the flag fails. Up top, the spike high at $2,546-2,566 is the last barrier before the November-December supply shelf at $2,800-3,100.

Bull case: the flag resolves up

The bull path needs a weekly close above $2,566. The measured-move math is clean: the flagpole ran roughly $1,967 to $2,546 (about 580 points), so a continuation from the current $2,400-2,440 coil projects toward $2,980-3,000 — right into the December 2025 supply zone. Probability-weighted, the path of least resistance remains upward while ETH holds $2,400. Invalidation: a weekly close below $2,320 weakens the setup, and below $2,130 the bullish structure is cancelled.

Bear case: the wall wins

A rejection at $2,566 with a weekly close back under $2,400 would put $2,300 and then $2,148 in play. Below the 38.2% retracement, the retest zone at $1,960-2,000 becomes the real support test — a weekly close there would call the entire breakout into question. That remains the minority scenario, but it is the one that catches the late buyers when momentum stalls.