ETH Daily Analysis — Four Sessions of Rising Lows Above the 0.5: The 2,743 Rejection Decides 2,950 or 2,600

Ether is trading at 2,708.07 in the opening hours of the 27 September session, 3.54% under the 2,807.34 print of 21 September — the highest price of the 120 sessions on this chart — and 80% above the 6 June window low of 1,505.68. Today's range is 22.14, or 0.82% of spot, on a 0.11x volume pace against the 20-day average of 311,491 ETH. Six sessions after the breakout candle, the market has stopped going anywhere — which is either a flag under construction or a top in progress, and the levels are what decide it.

Sixteen Percent in Six Sessions, and the Candle That Carried It

The advance runs from the 15 September trough at 2,358.88 to the 21 September high at 2,807.34: 448.46 points, or 19.01%, in six sessions — and almost all of it arrived in two bars. The 18 September session opened 2,447.28 and closed 2,612.14, a 6.7% day, and the 21st opened 2,645.21, ran to 2,807.34 and closed 2,776.19 on 573,090 ETH — 1.84x the 20-day average and the heaviest print of the last ten sessions. That close was the highest of the window. Only two closes since have held above the 0.236 retracement we published the next day, and one of them is today's.

The Pullback Stopped 18 Points Above the Floor Published on 22 September

The 22 September note on this page drew the retracement ladder of the 2,356.41–2,807.34 advance and called the 0.5 at 2,581.88 the floor of the bull case. The market has now tested that idea directly. The 23 September bar printed 2,789.00 and closed 2,684.71 on a 153.61-point range, 5.72% of price, and the 24th opened 2,684.70 and sold into 2,600.15 — a sweep that stopped 18.28 points, or 0.71%, above the 2,581.88 rung. Not one of the six sessions since the spike has closed underneath the 0.382 at 2,635.08. The floor did its job, and the sweep left a low that has not been looked at again.

Four Sessions of Rising Lows and Contracting Ranges

Since that sweep the tape has compressed. The last four lows read 2,600.15, 2,667.33, 2,664.79 and 2,689.99 — rising, with a single 2.54-point blip on the 26th — while the four closes span just 20.02 points, 0.74% of spot, the 9th-tightest four-session close cluster of the 117 windows on this chart. The ranges confirm it: 105.85, 75.67, 33.00 and 22.14 today against a 20-day average range of 98.98. Volume has drained out of the move at the same time: the 26 September session printed 86,484 ETH, the lightest full session of the last twenty-one, and today is running a 0.11x pace. Today's close also lifts price back over the 0.236 at 2,700.92 for the first time since 22 September — the same rung the 22 September pullback left behind.

The 2,743 Rejection and Three Measurements That Land Together

The lid of this coil is the 25 September high at 2,743.00 — a session that closed at 2,691.61, handing back 51.39 points, or 1.87%, from its own high. Above it sits the supply band from 22-23 September at 2,777.55 and 2,789.00, and then the peak itself. Three independent measurements crowd into a 26-point zone above the lid. The flag depth — 2,807.34 minus 2,600.15 = 207.19 — measured from the 2,743.00 rejection projects 2,950.19. The 1.618 extension of the 2,600.15 to 2,743.00 rebound projects 2,974.13. And the rectangle count published on 22 September put the destination band at 2,976.12–2,979.59. Half of the pole measured from the 2,600.15 sweep low gives 2,824.38 as the first stop on the way up.

Scenarios and the Invalidation

Above, 2,743.00 is the first gate: a daily close over it opens the 22-23 September band and the peak test, and a close over 2,807.34 puts 2,824.38 and then the 2,950–2,976 zone in play. Expect the first poke to be sold — the 25 September bar gave back 1.87% from a 2,743 print, and the two closes above the 0.236 since the spike have both been faded. Below, 2,664.79 is the rising floor; a close under it hands the market the 2,600.15 sweep low and then the 0.5 at 2,581.88, which is the level the 22 September note already defined as the end of the bull case. The bull case dies on a daily close below 2,600.15; the bear case dies on a daily close above 2,807.34.

Four rising lows, a 20-point close band and a shrinking range under a rejection high — that is a coil, and coils resolve. What makes it a bull flag rather than a topping pattern is that the 24 September sweep stopped 18 points above the 0.5 retrace we drew five sessions earlier.

Two numbers argue for patience rather than a chase into the lid. RSI(14) is 64.7 — firm, not stretched — while price sits 5% above the 20-day average at 2,578.95 and 13% above the 50-day at 2,389.04, and the 14-day ATR is 93.25, or 3.4% of spot. A market that averages a 3.7% daily range can cover the distance from 2,708.07 to either the 2,743 lid or the 2,600 sweep low in a single session, which is why a 55/45 lean is the honest read rather than a forecast.

Watch two lines: 2,743.00 above, 2,664.79 below.