Bernstein Just Gave Bitcoin a $150,000 Base Case — and a $500,000 Bull Case for 2029

Wall Street’s biggest bitcoin desks just went bolder. In a note to clients on Wednesday, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani laid out a base case where bitcoin returns to $125,000 by the end of 2026, breaks to a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027, and peaks around $300,000 in the 2029 cycle — and that is the conservative scenario. If the “debasement trade” accelerates, they see $200,000 by mid-2027 and as much as $500,000 by 2029. The call landed as bitcoin consolidates around $78,000 after a 22% weekly surge, with spot ETF assets pushing toward the $100 billion mark.

The $150,000 Base Case, Step by Step

Bernstein’s model is built on bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, valuing the token as a multiple of the marginal cost of production. Under that framework the path is clean: roughly $125,000 by the end of 2026, a fresh all-time high of $150,000 around the middle of 2027, and a cycle peak near $300,000 in 2029. The update also moved the firm’s timeline — it previously expected $150,000 by the end of 2026 with a $200,000 peak in 2027. The long-term number is even bigger: Bernstein kept its roughly $1 million bitcoin forecast for the end of 2033. Full details in The Block’s report on the Bernstein call.

The Macro Shift Behind the Call: the Debasement Trade

The reasoning is fiscal, not chart-based. Bernstein argues the 40-year era of declining interest rates is over, with U.S. sovereign debt sitting at $40 trillion. Rising yields create what the analysts call a “self-reinforcing cycle of higher interest expenses, larger fiscal deficits, and increased borrowing needs,” turning debt sustainability into a growing policy challenge. Their conclusion: policymakers will ultimately favor currency debasement over fiscal stress — which lifts demand for scarce assets that cannot be created or diluted, bitcoin chief among them.

“The debasement trade is starting to replace AI mania.” — Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst

The market is already showing it. Balchunas noted this week that BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and SPDR’s gold ETF (GLD) have returned to the top 10 most-traded ETFs, displacing the semiconductor funds that dominated the rankings over the summer. Around 59% of bitcoin’s supply has not moved in the past 12 months, and the token has gained roughly 28% in 10 days after a ~50% drawdown from its October 2025 peak. KuCoin’s flash on the $150K forecast covers the same numbers from the exchange side.

The $500,000 Bull Case

Bernstein also outlined an accelerated scenario: if institutional capital chases bitcoin more aggressively amid currency debasement, the token could reach $200,000 by mid-2027 and potentially peak at $500,000 in 2029. It is the same debasement logic, just with a faster rotation. The analysts also credit spot bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buying for limiting this cycle’s drawdown to roughly 50%, versus the 75–90% crashes of previous cycles.

What It Means for Strategy — and for You

The same note kept an Outperform rating on Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, while trimming its price target to $350 from $450 on an updated cycle outlook and accelerated equity dilution. Even after the cut, $350 implies more than 175% upside from Tuesday’s close. Strategy holds roughly 840,447 BTC — about 4% of bitcoin’s total supply — worth around $65.8 billion and sitting above its $75,388 average purchase price. Stocktwits’ breakdown of the Strategy target cut has the details.

For regular holders the takeaway is simple: the largest institutional research desks are modeling a new all-time high within a year and a cycle peak at roughly four times today’s price — with a bull case at six times. The macro backdrop keeps pointing the same way: record debt, buyback-fueled liquidity, and ETF inflows of $2.26 billion over six straight sessions. Track the live Bitcoin price on CoinGecko as the next catalysts land — the mid-September CLARITY Act vote and the Treasury’s expanded buybacks from September 9. If the debasement trade keeps running, these targets may age very well.