Momentum Unlocks 250 Million MMT Tomorrow — 123.8% of the Float Against $0.46M of Daily Volume, and $0.1154 Decides 0.1250 or 0.0992

Momentum releases 250 million MMT on 4 November. The token has 204,095,424 in circulation, so the unlock is 123.8% of the float — more than the entire tradable supply, landing in a single event on a token that already trades at $0.116.

That is the whole story in one number, and the second number makes it worse. Over the last 24 hours the MMT/USDT pair on Binance produced $458,829 of turnover. The unlock is roughly sixty times the daily tape it has to be sold into.

The 2 November session took MMT from $0.1272 to a $0.1154 low and a $0.1158 close, the fifth consecutive lower high off the 24 October top. The token sits 97.1% below its $4.03 record and 39.4% lower over thirty days. Tomorrow's supply event is the first one this float has ever faced.

What Actually Unlocks Tomorrow

CoinGecko's unlock tracker lists the next MMT release at 250 million tokens, dated 4 November, worth $29.31 million at the current price and equal to 123.83% of circulating supply. Tokenomist's dashboard carries the same 123.83% ratio against a $31.36 million upcoming value. Two trackers, one number: the float more than doubles in a day.

The source of it is the token's own schedule. Momentum's generation event was 4 November 2025, with 20.41% of the 1 billion supply circulating at launch. The early-backer bucket is 24.78% of total supply — 247.8 million MMT — and it sat behind a 12-month cliff from that generation event. The cliff expires this week, which is why the release is measured in hundreds of millions of tokens and not in monthly tranches.

Do the arithmetic on the other side and the overhang gets a shape. Market capitalisation is $23.66 million; fully diluted valuation is $115.9 million. That is a 4.9x gap between what the market prices today and what every unlocked token will eventually be worth at the same price. After tomorrow's release the float moves from 204.1 million to roughly 454.1 million — from 20.4% of supply to 45.4%.

Momentum itself is the ve(3,3) exchange on Sui — a concentrated-liquidity venue modelled on Uniswap v3 — and MMT is the token inside that design: locking it is how participants vote for where liquidity incentives go, and voters collect the trading fees and bribes that flow to the locked position. That model works when the token has a bid. It is a different proposition when a quarter of the supply becomes transferable in one block of time.

The Tape It Has To Be Absorbed By

Binance's 24-hour figures are the cleanest read on liquidity: 3.82 million MMT traded for $458,829, with a $0.1154 low against a $0.1277 high across the session that broke the range.

Look at what real volume looks like on this pair and the scale problem becomes obvious. The 24 October candle — the one that printed the $0.1560 local top — traded 10.39 million MMT for $1.48 million. The 15 October candle, which took the price from a $0.1702 open to a $0.1442 close, traded 15.03 million MMT for $2.22 million. Those are the two heaviest sessions of the past three weeks.

Now price the unlock against them. If only 5% of the 250 million tokens find a seller in the first week, that is 12.5 million MMT — about $1.45 million, or 3.2x the entire last 24 hours of Binance turnover. At 10%, it is 6.3x. The unlock does not have to be sold all at once to matter; it only has to be sold faster than $0.46 million a day.

The counterweight is that unlocks rarely clear on day one. Vesting contracts release tokens, not sellers, and the first 48 hours usually produce more headlines than volume. The pressure shows up over the following five to fifteen sessions, once the recipients decide what to do with a token that is already down 97% from its record.

Five Lower Highs Into $0.1154

The structure into the unlock is unambiguously distributive. The highs since 24 October read $0.1560, then $0.1438, $0.1397, $0.1325, $0.1297 and $0.1277 — six peaks, each one lower, on a sequence of $0.1341, $0.1260, $0.1210 and $0.1154 lows. Lower highs and lower lows with no failed breakdown anywhere in the series.

The line that matters is $0.1154, the 2 November low and the floor of that sequence. It held once, on the session that broke $0.1210, and it is the only level between the current price and the June floor.

Below it, the shelf is $0.0992 — the 6 June low on Binance, and $0.0995 on CoinGecko's all-time-low print. That is 14% under the decision line, and it is the last place this token found buyers in size.

Above the price, the retracements of the $0.1560 to $0.1154 leg give a ladder: the 0.236 at $0.1250, the 0.382 at $0.1309, the 0.5 at $0.1357 and the 0.618 at $0.1405. The 0.236 sits just under the 1 November high of $0.1297, the last bounce that got sold before the range gave way.

The Two Ways This Resolves

BULL: the unlock gets absorbed and the market treats the float expansion as the end of the overhang. The first evidence would be a daily close back above $0.1210, the 30 October low that failed on 2 November. That opens $0.1250 — the 0.236 — with $0.1297 and $0.1309 stacked above it. A close over $0.1309 would put the 0.5 at $0.1357 in play, and that is the level that would mark the distribution sequence as broken. Invalidation for the whole idea is a daily close below $0.1154.

BEAR: the market looks at 250 million new tokens against $0.46 million of daily turnover and does the only rational thing. Acceptance below $0.1154 — a close, not a wick — projects the $0.1277 to $0.1154 range lower for $0.1031, and puts the June floor at $0.0992 directly in the path. A break of $0.0992 would be a new all-time low on a token that is already down 97% from its first-day price.

The honest read is that both paths start at the same place. Momentum can survive dilution if the venue's fee flow keeps attracting lockers, and the ve(3,3) design gives it a mechanism to do that. What it cannot do is absorb 250 million tokens with $0.46 million of daily volume and no sellers in a hurry. The market will answer the question at the only level that has held: $0.1154.

What To Watch On The Day

The release lands on 4 November at 08:00 Beijing time, which is 00:00 UTC. Three things are worth tracking once it does.

First, whether the tokens move. A vesting release that stays in the recipient wallets is a schedule event; one that lands on exchange deposit addresses within hours is a supply event. Watch the flow, not the announcement.

Second, whether Binance spot volume breaks its $458,829 baseline. Absorption needs buyers, and buyers show up as turnover. A quiet tape with a falling price is the worst combination available to this token.

Third, the daily close relative to $0.1154. The 2 November low is the only level in the structure that has been defended, and a daily close beneath it converts the unlock from a scheduling story into a price story.