ETH Daily Analysis — Seven Lower Highs Into a Rising Floor That Cracked to 2,591.71: The 2,635.69 Retake Decides 2,725 or 2,393

Ethereum is trading at 2,617.38 in the opening hours of the 7 October session, 6.8% under the 2,807.34 high of 21 September and 1.2% above the 2,587.55 level where the 0.236 of the whole advance sits. Today's range is 108.09, 4.13% of spot, on 170,329 ETH in the first seven hours — a pace of about 2.15x a normal full session against the 20-day average of 267,159. The number that matters is 2,635.69: a two-touch shelf printed 2,635.39 on 23 September and 2,635.69 on 28 September, and the first honest resistance above this close.

A Lid Lowered Seven Times

The sequence is the cleanest part of this chart. The 21 September session printed 2,807.34 — the highest print of the 120-day window — on 573,090 ETH, 2.15x the 20-day average and the heaviest tape of the window. Then the retests, in order: 2,789.00, 2,748.60, 2,777.33, 2,739.50, 2,738.00 and 2,725.13. Seven highs, none of them a new high, the last three inside 14.37 points, and the strongest of the retests — 2,777.33 on 2 October — still 30.01 under the lid on 1.59x volume. Sellers were not merely present at the top; they were consistent at progressively lower prices.

A Floor That Rose 86.39 Points Before It Gave Them Back

Under the lid the floor was doing the opposite. From the 24 September low of 2,600.15 the lows lifted to 2,686.54 by 4 October — 86.39 points over ten sessions, an average of 8.64 a session, with the last four prints inside a 36.56 band. That is what made the structure a wedge rather than a range: 207.19 points of room on 21 September, about 60 by 6 October. Today the floor answered first. The session opened 2,697.49, printed 2,699.80 and then 2,591.71 — 8.44 under the 2,600.15 pivot and 94.83 under the 4 October floor, in one range of 108.09 points.

The Whole Advance Was Retraced, and the 0.236 Held It

There is one arithmetic fact that makes today's low a decision rather than a stop. The advance from 2,600.15 to 2,807.34 is 207.19 points; today's low erased all of it and 8.44 more below the base — a 104% retracement in a single session. What stopped the selling is a level from a much bigger move: the 0.236 retracement of the 1,876.01-2,807.34 advance at 2,587.55, which sat 4.16 under the low. Two measurements, one shelf, and the candle closed 25.67 back above its own low. That is the difference between a sweep and a breakdown.

The First Close Under the 20-Day Average in Twenty Sessions

Momentum has turned, and the moving averages say so. The close of 2,617.38 is the first under its own trailing 20-day average since 17 September — the average sits at 2,678.29, which is 60.91 above price, and the last twenty sessions had closed above it every single time. RSI(14) reads 37.4, matching the 5 October low and the weakest reading of the last forty sessions. ATR(14) is 70.93 points, 2.71% of spot. The 50-day at 2,533.91 is the next structural shelf, and it is 3.2% under the close, which means the bear path has real space before it meets support.

Seven lower highs is a lid being lowered on purpose. The floor is what finally answered, and it answered in one session.

The bull case starts small and has to keep going in order. A close back above 2,635.39 / 2,635.69 is the first requirement — that pair is the two-touch shelf the sweep just undercut, and until it is reclaimed every rally is a retest of broken support. Then 2,650.88 and 2,656.92, the 30 September and 29 September lows, then 2,686.54, the top of the floor that broke today, then the falling lid at 2,725.13. A close above the lid cancels the wedge resolution and reopens 2,777.33 and 2,807.34, with the pattern's own count at 3,014.53 — 2,807.34 plus the 207.19 range. The invalidation for this path is exact: a daily close back under 2,600.15, because that is the pivot today's low swept.

The bear case is the cleaner trade while price sits under the reclaimed shelf. Lose 2,587.55, the 0.236, and the ladder is 2,533.91 at the 50-day average, then 2,451.57 at the 0.382 of the advance, then 2,392.96 — the wedge count, 2,600.15 minus the 207.19 range. Today's low, today's failed retest of the 2,600.15-2,635.69 pocket and the first close under the 20-day average in twenty sessions all point the same way. The bear case dies on a daily close above 2,725.13.