399 Days After Its Record, Bitcoin Is Holding the 200-Day by $303, With $12.1 Billion Gone From the Stablecoin Float

Bitcoin closed Sunday at $74,851, which is 39.94% below the record close of $124,658 it printed on 6 October 2025. That was 399 days ago. Monday has traded between $74,486 and $75,599, last changing hands at $74,871 and down 1.33% on the day, and the whole market is worth $2.62 trillion against the $4.82 trillion peak that Coinpaprika measured on 5 October last year. Bitcoin dominance is 57.5%.

The 200-Day at $73,206 Has Not Been Broken in 82 Closes

The 200-day moving average sits at $73,206.63 and bitcoin has closed above it for 82 consecutive sessions. Sunday's low was $73,510, which is $303 above it. That is the entire cushion left under an asset that is 40.67% below its intraday record of $126,199.63.

Above the price the ladder is compact and heavy: the 100-day at $77,466.69 is 3.35% up, the 50-day at $81,695.50 is 8.35% up, then come the 20-session high of $84,898 from 21 October and the 60-session high of $87,395.67 from 21 September. The 2026 range is still the wider frame - a $97,924.49 high on 14 January, a $57,800.19 low on 1 July, and 29.54% of recovery off that low, with 23.54% still missing to the January top.

The trend in three numbers: down 2.53% over seven sessions, down 9.78% over thirty, up 17.72% over ninety. The average daily move over the last thirty sessions is 1.27%, so none of this is a crash - it is a market bleeding in small increments.

Only 8 of 69 Real Assets Are Up for the Week

Strip out the stablecoins, the wrapped tokens and the staked derivatives from the top 100 and 69 real assets are left. Eleven of them are green on the day. Eight are green on the week. The median seven-day return is -6.27% against bitcoin's -4.49%, and the median daily return is -1.59%.

Twenty-seven of the 69 beat bitcoin's weekly number, but most of them simply fell less. The bid is narrow: Injective at +14.07%, Arbitrum at +5.86%, Pepe at +3.37%, JUST at +1.87% and Tron at +1.48% are the only names with a genuine weekly gain of any size.

The other end is where the damage sits: Worldcoin -17.07%, Ethena -16.74%, Near Protocol -15.43%, Hyperliquid -15.22%, Bitcoin Cash -15.15%, Pump.fun -13.25%, Stellar -12.76% and Filecoin -12.76%. A week like that inside a 57.5%-dominance market is what a narrowing tape looks like from the alt side.

$12.1 Billion Left the Stablecoin Float in 30 Days

Stablecoin supply across all chains is $294.8 billion, down $4.0 billion in seven days and $12.1 billion in thirty, according to DefiLlama's stablecoin tracker. Tether is $176.8 billion after a $2.44 billion week, USDC $70.5 billion after $1.08 billion, USDS $5.4 billion after $950 million and USD1 $3.4 billion after $460 million. Ethena's USDe, at $5.0 billion, is the one large coin that grew: +$440 million.

A shrinking float is not the same thing as dry powder. Stablecoins are the settlement rail, and when the rail contracts by $12 billion in a month while price falls, the marginal dollar is leaving the system rather than sitting in it waiting for a signal.

Flat Funding, Shrinking Open Interest, Thin Volume

Bitcoin perpetual funding is +0.0100% per eight hours, exactly the neutral baseline. ETH is -0.00635% and SOL is -0.00788%, which means shorts are paying longs on the two largest alts. Open interest on Binance's BTC futures is $7.15 billion, down 6.9% from $7.68 billion thirty days ago and below the $8.24 billion peak in that window.

Spot volume is the quieter number. Binance's BTC/USDT pair has averaged $1.30 billion a day in 2026, but the last thirty sessions have averaged $1.10 billion and the last seven $1.05 billion. Only three of the last sixty sessions cleared $2 billion, against 31 such sessions across 2026 as a whole, and the heaviest day of the year was $7.20 billion on 5 February.

What Decides It

The bull case is a reclaim of the 100-day at $77,466.69, which opens $81,695.50 and then the $84,898 October high. That turns the 82-close streak from a floor under price into a launchpad, and it needs breadth to follow: eight green names out of 69 is not a base, it is a shrug.

The bear case is one daily close below $73,206.63. That ends the streak and puts the 11 August close of $63,600 back in play, with the 1 July low of $57,800.19 below it. I give the hold 60% and the break 40%, because funding is neutral, open interest is being cut rather than rebuilt, and a $303 cushion is not a buffer.

The levels that matter this week: $73,206.63, $73,510, $77,466.69, $81,695.50 and $84,898. Everything else is commentary.